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Journal articleMarkonis Y, Vargas Godoy MR, Pradhan RK, et al., 2024,
Spatial partitioning of terrestrial precipitation reveals varying dataset agreement across different environments
, Communications Earth and Environment, Vol: 5The study of the water cycle at planetary scale is crucial for our understanding of large-scale climatic processes. However, very little is known about how terrestrial precipitation is distributed across different environments. In this study, we address this gap by employing a 17-dataset ensemble to provide, for the first time, precipitation estimates over a suite of land cover types, biomes, elevation zones, and precipitation intensity classes. We estimate annual terrestrial precipitation at approximately 114,000 ± 9400 km3, with about 70% falling over tropical, subtropical and temperate regions. Our results highlight substantial inconsistencies, mainly, over the arid and the mountainous areas. To quantify the overall discrepancies, we utilize the concept of dataset agreement and then explore the pairwise relationships among the datasets in terms of “genealogy”, concurrency, and distance. The resulting uncertainty-based partitioning demonstrates how precipitation is distributed over a wide range of environments and improves our understanding on how their conditions influence observational fidelity.
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Journal articleNagel G, Chen J, Jaensch A, et al., 2024,
Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: the ELAPSE project
, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 154, Pages: 1900-1910, ISSN: 0020-7136Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w ) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5 , NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 , 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 , 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3w . We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5 , NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.
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Journal articleFuselier SA, Petrinec SM, Reiff PH, et al., 2024,
Global-Scale Processes and Effects of Magnetic Reconnection on the Geospace Environment
, Space Science Reviews, Vol: 220, ISSN: 0038-6308Recent multi-point measurements, in particular from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft, have advanced the understanding of micro-scale aspects of magnetic reconnection. In addition, the MMS mission, as part of the Heliospheric System Observatory, combined with recent advances in global magnetospheric modeling, have furthered the understanding of meso- and global-scale structure and consequences of reconnection. Magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause and in the magnetotail are the drivers of the global Dungey cycle, a classical picture of global magnetospheric circulation. Some recent advances in the global structure and consequences of reconnection that are addressed here include a detailed understanding of the location and steadiness of reconnection at the dayside magnetopause, the importance of multiple plasma sources in the global circulation, and reconnection consequences in the magnetotail. These advances notwithstanding, there are important questions about global reconnection that remain. These questions focus on how multiple reconnection and reconnection variability fit into and complicate the Dungey Cycle picture of global magnetospheric circulation.
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Journal articleGriffiths A, Lambelet M, Crocket K, et al., 2024,
Neodymium isotope composition and rare earth element distribution of East Antarctic continental shelf and deep waters
, Chemical Geology, Vol: 653, ISSN: 0009-2541Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) play key roles in the Earth's climate system. Both water masses form critical components of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Meridional Overturning Circulation and therefore directly influence the large-scale redistribution of heat, nutrients and carbon. Reconstruction of past CDW transport and AABW production and export has been a key target in palaeoceanography. One promising proxy to achieve this has been the neodymium (Nd) isotope composition of seawater. The biogeochemical processes controlling Nd in the ocean, however, remain underconstrained, and modern observations of Nd isotopes in the Southern Ocean are still geographically limited.To overcome this limitation, 61 seawater samples were collected for Nd isotope and rare earth element (REE) analysis at nine stations along the Wilkes Land continental margin and in the Australian-Antarctic Basin (65°S 125°E) near East Antarctica. The results show that the different water masses have the following Nd isotope characteristics: Antarctic Surface Water (AASW), εNd = −9.0 ± 1.0 (2SD; n = 22); Modified CDW (MCDW), εNd = −8.8 ± 0.8 (2SD; n = 22); AABW, εNd = −8.3 ± 0.5 (2SD; n = 17).There is no evidence of continental REE inputs to surface waters on the Wilkes Land margin. Observed zonal variability of Nd isotope composition in AASW can be attributed to seasonal competition between the poleward flow of warm AASW from the AAG and the westward export of cold surface shelf waters by the Antarctic Slope Current.In terms of deep and bottom waters, mixing of upwelled CDW with AASW and AABW exclusively controls the Nd isotope composition of MCDW, with no indication of boundary processes modifying the Nd isotope composition of MCDW as it encroaches the shelf or slope. The regional Nd isotope signature for AABW is intermediate between published data for the Atlantic sector AABW (εNd
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Journal articleHan W, Zhang J, Xu Z, et al., 2024,
Could the association between ozone and arterial stiffness be modified by fish oil supplementation?
, Environmental Research, Vol: 249, ISSN: 0013-9351BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness (AS) is an important predicting factor for cardiovascular disease. However, no epidemiological studies have ever explored the mediating role of biomarkers in the association between ozone and AS, nor weather fish oil modified such association. METHODS: Study participants were drawn from the UK biobank, and a total of 95,699 middle-aged and older adults were included in this study. Ozone was obtained from Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model matched to residential addresses, fish oil from self-reported intake, and arterial stiffness was based on device measurements. First, we applied a double robust approach to explore the association between ozone or fish oil intake and arterial stiffness, adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and regional levels. Then, how triglycerides, apolipoprotein B (Apo B)/apolipoprotein A (ApoA) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (Non-HDL-C) mediate the relationship between ozone and AS. Last, the modifying role of fish oil was further explored by stratified analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 55 years; annual average ozone exposure was associated with ASI (beta:0.189 [95%CI: 0.146 to 0.233], P < 0.001), and compared to participants who did not consume fish oil, fish oil users had a lower ASI (beta: 0.061 [95%CI: -0.111 to -0.010], P = 0.016). The relationship between ozone exposure and AS was mediated by triglycerides, ApoB/ApoA, and Non-HDL-C with mediation proportions ranging from 10.90% to 18.30%. Stratified analysis showed lower estimates on the ozone-AS relationship in fish oil users (P = 0.011). CONCLUSION: Ozone exposure was associated with higher levels of arterial stiffness, in contrast to fish oil consumption, which showed a protective association. The association between ozone exposure and arterial stiffness was partially mediated by some biomarkers. In the general population, fish oil consumption might provide prote
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Journal articleShattock AJ, Johnson HC, Sim SY, et al., 2024,
Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.
, LancetBACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save
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Journal articleCallaghan A, 2024,
On the short-term response of entrained air bubbles in the upper ocean: a case study in the north Adriatic Sea
, Ocean Science Journal, ISSN: 2005-7172 -
Journal articleHu S, Shu S, Chen Z, et al., 2024,
Sustainable impact analysis of freight pooling strategies on city crowdsourcing logistics platform
, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol: 130, ISSN: 1361-9209This study investigates the effects of freight pooling strategies on urban crowdsourcing logistics, focusing on economic, social, and environmental outcomes. Utilising a mixed-integer linear programming model with an adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm, our goal is to optimise the cost-efficiency of the freight pooling system. Real-world delivery and driver trajectory data from a major Chinese crowdsourcing logistics platform, along with high-resolution vehicle telematics data, validate our model in five scenarios, each defined by distinct cost coefficients reflecting diverse stakeholder priorities. Results show potential for up to a 21.3% reduction in carbon emissions, a 28.3% decrease in truck activity spatial coverage, and a 7.6% increase in available drivers. However, deadheading trips, due to order consolidation into fewer vehicles without an increase in overall demand, could offset maximum carbon reduction benefits by 16.4%. Other effects on customers’ and drivers’ welfare are explored for a comprehensive quantitative assessment of freight pooling strategies’ sustainability benefits.
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Journal articleLewis-Brown E, Jennings N, Mills M, et al., 2024,
Comparison of carbon management and emissions of universities that did and did not adopt voluntary carbon offsets
, Climate Policy, Vol: 24, Pages: 706-722, ISSN: 1469-3062The urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, remove carbon from the atmosphere and stabilize natural carbon sinks has led to the development of many carbon management measures, increasingly including voluntary carbon offsets (VCOs). We studied carbon management in universities, institutions with large carbon footprints and considerable influence in climate science and policy fora. However, concerns that VCOs may deter adopters (including universities) from adopting other carbon reduction measures and limit emissions reductions, for example, through moral hazard, have been raised but understudied. We compared the carbon management characteristics (priorities, policies, practices and emissions) of universities that did and did not adopt VCOs. We found adopters measured carbon emissions for longer, and had set targets to reach net zero earlier than had non-adopters. Adopters of VCOs also undertook more carbon management practices in both 2010 and 2020 than non-adopters. We also found that both adopters and non-adopters significantly increased their carbon management practices over the decade studied, but with no difference between groups. Gross CO2 emissions were reduced significantly over time by adopters of VCOs but not by non-adopters, whereas carbon intensity and percentage annual emissions reductions did not relate to adoption status. Consequently, our study showed no indication of mitigation deterrence due to adoption of VCOs at the universities studied. Rather, greater emissions reductions correlated with earlier net zero target dates, and a higher number of policies and carbon management practices. However, our study was constrained to universities that were affiliated with a national environmental network, so research beyond these organizations, and with individuals, would be useful. The survey was voluntary, exposing the study to potential self-selection bias so the findings may not be generalized beyond the study group. Finally, we found the carbon ac
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Journal articleBouman JA, Hauser A, Grimm SL, et al., 2024,
Bayesian workflow for time-varying transmission in stratified compartmental infectious disease transmission models.
, PLoS Comput Biol, Vol: 20Compartmental models that describe infectious disease transmission across subpopulations are central for assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, behavioral changes and seasonal effects on the spread of respiratory infections. We present a Bayesian workflow for such models, including four features: (1) an adjustment for incomplete case ascertainment, (2) an adequate sampling distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases, (3) a flexible, time-varying transmission rate, and (4) a stratification by age group. Within the workflow, we benchmarked the performance of various implementations of two of these features (2 and 3). For the second feature, we used SARS-CoV-2 data from the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) and found that a quasi-Poisson distribution is the most suitable sampling distribution for describing the overdispersion in the observed laboratory-confirmed cases. For the third feature, we implemented three methods: Brownian motion, B-splines, and approximate Gaussian processes (aGP). We compared their performance in terms of the number of effective samples per second, and the error and sharpness in estimating the time-varying transmission rate over a selection of ordinary differential equation solvers and tuning parameters, using simulated seroprevalence and laboratory-confirmed case data. Even though all methods could recover the time-varying dynamics in the transmission rate accurately, we found that B-splines perform up to four and ten times faster than Brownian motion and aGPs, respectively. We validated the B-spline model with simulated age-stratified data. We applied this model to 2020 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and two seroprevalence studies from the canton of Geneva. This resulted in detailed estimates of the transmission rate over time and the case ascertainment. Our results illustrate the potential of the presented workflow including stratified transmission to estimate age-specific epidemiological parameters. The workflow is fr
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